When NV Energy and the PUCN decided to just do a class average, they only took a little snip it of the population and did not compute what affects it may have on different energy users. I wanted to see what will happen if you built a bigger or smaller system than the one used in the Class Average, and also see how the affects those users would have if they would use little or most of the electricity produced by the solar system instantaneously.
The Matrix’s below, of both Northern and Southern Nevada, show that your instant Solar Energy Consumption (I call it solar avoided generation) will greatly vary your savings and return on investment at each System Size. The controlled variable in each group is the system size, and that in turn determines how much electricity is produced(controlled). What changes is the amount of electricity is consumed instantly at each size.
What is demonstrated above is that at each group of system size, is that the less solar consumed instantaneously will have greater change in saving, increased annual cost, and longer return on investment. Energy usage will need to be a huge concern for people who currently own solar. They will have to do a huge load shift during solar producing hours. Will load shifting cause someone to now use more electricity in the house and will it be an easy task an average homeowner could reasonably do?
In the very center of each matrix is NV Energy’s Average Class. You can see the difference in savings is greater than a 1% change from NEM1 and 2016(Step 1) as stated from the PUCN, this is proven false in all of the numbers I have ran except in very small systems that consume almost all of its power instantly. The Annual Cost Increase is around $100 dollars in one year, not the $20 Noble recently stated, and the amount of years for Return On Investment will double and could be 5 times greater than originally installed(Southern NV 2 kW, 20% instant consumption, NEM1 vs 2020).
Grandfathering will resolve the issue of savings changes, increased costs and roi’s on already installed systems. The matrix’s above show that the Solar Industry will not survive the new longer ROI’s. The Warranties of the systems average 25 years. This right here goes against the Governors own statements that he wants to preserve solar jobs in the state when the affordability of a system is now no longer viable.
I have submitted the Data, for the above matrix’s, to be submitted with the interveners to the PUCN. If you would like to see my work and numbers, please email me at firstname.lastname@example.org